Vietnam wants high GDP growth rate, low inflation rate in 2019
VietNamNet Bridge - The National Assembly has approved a resolution on socio-economic development in 2019,  calling for 6.6-6.8 percent GDP growth rate and a maximum 4 percent CPI increase.


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Chair of the Economics Committee Vu Hong Thanh said the targeted GDP growth rate of 6.6-6.8 percent has been set on the basis of the GDP in 2018, which is estimated to exceed to 6.7 percent.

The government is harmonizing its goals of GDP growth and inflation control. 

Economists all say the pressure on CPI is increasing with the possible crude oil price increase, the exchange rate, interest rate and risk increase in the international financial market, and trade conflicts among some countries. 

Meanwhile, the electricity price, education and healthcare service fees, and minimum wage will be increasing as planned.

While Thanh believes the 4 percent inflation rate is ‘attainable’, some analysts say this will be a difficult task. 

Economists all say the pressure on CPI is increasing with the possible crude oil price increase, the exchange rate, interest rate and risk increase in the international financial market, and trade conflicts among some countries. 

Le Dang Doanh, a respected economist, said the environmental protection tax will be raised to the ceiling level, which will lead to petroleum price increases. Meanwhile, petrol and oil are input materials for industrial production.

“The petrol price hike will push the prices of other products, from vegetable, egg to steel and cement up,” Doanh said.

About the goals, Nguyen Duc Do, deputy head of the Economics & Price Research Institute said the figures are within reach. 

However, Do stressed that the GDP growth rate would still depend on the world economy’s performance. If the world’s economy is stable, the 6.6-6.8 percent growth rate is attainable. It would be a difficult task if the world’s economy performed badly.

Dinh The Hien, an economist, also has confidence in the feasibility of the socio-economic development plan. He stressed that the government needs to create more favorable conditions by improving the business environment and fair competition among enterprises.

“If the GDP growth relies on FDI and public investments, we will only gain a part of the goal. We have to help enterprises obtain stable production and business. The production and quality upgrading is the most important thing,” Hien said.

In general, economists are cautious when talking about the economic performance in 2019, warning of the uncertainties in the world market.

The uncertainties, said Tran Hoang Ngan, a member of the PM Advisory Council, include the decline of some European and Japanese economies, the trade war between the US and China, and the return of protectionism in some countries.

“Vietnam’s economy will surely bear influences from the world’s economy,” Ngan commented.


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Mai Lan

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