VietNamNet Bridge - The possibility of El Nino coming to Vietnam is up to 92%, according to the Centre for Meteorological and Climate Research under the Ministry of Science and Technology. 

One month ago this centre forecast the possibility of El Nino appearing in Vietnam in late 2006 and early 2007 as 80%. 

Specialised agencies under the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment have closely followed and analysed the latest forecasts of big weather forecast centres around the world (the US, Japan, Australia, Europe) about El Nino. They said that El Nino could appear in December 2006 and remain till April or May 2007. 

Based on those agencies’ analyses and forecasts, the MoNRE has reported to the Prime Minister its forecast about the weather changes in the coming time and suggested that the government ask localities to be vigilant against drought, particularly in the southern part of the central region and the Central Highlands in the winter-spring 2006-2007. 

The central region is now in the rainy and flood season so the ministry has also proposed that the Prime Minister instruct provinces in the region to closely keep up with information on hydro-meteorology to be able to take timely measures when floods come. 

According to the National Hydro-meteorological Forecast Centre, the average temperature of Hanoi in October was 27.4oC, the highest level in the past 80 years, around 2.8oC more than the average in many years. 

It is forecast that the average temperature in the next months in some regions will be still higher than the average of previous years, especially in the central southern and southern regions. 

Along with high temperatures, the rainfall in Vietnam from May to October was lower than the average of previous years. In the north and the northern part of the central region, the volume of rainfall compared to the average of previous years was only 50-80%, and it was only 30-60% for other regions. Some areas didn’t have rain at all in October, such as Phu Lien in Hai Phong, Cao Bang, Hung Yen, Hai Duong. 

In the first 20 days of November, the water level of rivers fell to levels that were lower than the average of previous years by 15-70%. It is forecast that in the dry season, from December 2006 to May 2007, the levels of rivers in the central region, the Central Highlands and the south will be 20-40% lower than previous years. 

(Source: VietNamNet, Tien Phong)