6.7 percent GDP growth rate within reach for VN
VietNamNet Bridge - Economists say Vietnam is coming closer to the goal of 6.7 percent GDP growth rate, though the country has not exploited as much coal and oil as planned.


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The General Statistics Office (GSO) announced that the GDP growth rate in the third quarter of the year reached 7.46 percent, a record high level that surprised all analysts. Just days before the announcement, ADB even lowered its predicted GDP growth rate for Vietnam to 6.3 percent.

As such, Vietnam needs a 7.31 percent growth rate in the fourth quarter to reach the 6.7 percent goal. 

One of the solutions to obtain the 6.7 percent growth rate was exploiting 1 million tons of oil and ensuring the exploitation of 41 million tons of coal. 

The solution was mentioned by Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung before the National Assembly on June 9, 2017.

However, GSO General Director Nguyen Bich Lam last week said the crude oil exploitation output decreased by 11.1 percent, while the coal exploitation increased by 1.9 percent only in the first nine months of the year in comparison with the same period last year.

These were reasonable production levels, because the crude oil price was nearly the same with the production cost (less than $50 per barrel). Meanwhile, the coal inventory level will increase to 13.8 million tons by the end of the year from 10.2 million tons in late June.

Economists say Vietnam is coming closer to the goal of 6.7 percent GDP growth rate, though the country has not exploited as much coal and oil as planned.

Thoi Bao Kinh Te Sai Gon said that exploiting oil and coal, which was always a solution to boost economic growth, has become less important. Though the natural resources exploitation was lower than planned, Vietnam still obtained a high growth rate of 7.46 percent in Q3, thus helping raise GDP to 6.41 percent in the first nine months.

Vietnam has witnessed a strong rise of the agriculture – forestry – seafood sector with the growth rate of 2.78 percent in the last nine months, which made up 0.43 percentage points in economic growth. 

The achievement is very encouraging, if noting that when the new cabinet began its tenure, the sector had a minus growth rate in the first half of 2016 because of the Formosa scandal and the severe drought in Mekong Delta. The overproduction in the livestock industry also affected the sector development. 

However, it has recovered thanks to the 6 percent growth rate of the seafood industry in the first nine months.

While GDP shows the ‘assets’ of the national economy, the operation of businesses shows its ‘health’.

GSO’s report said that in the first nine months, 93,967 businesses registered operation with total capital of VND902.7 trillion, increasing by 15.4 percent in number of businesses and 43.5 percent in capital compared with the same period last year.


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M. Ha
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